Real Madrid
v
Villarreal

La Liga · Sat 10 Oct · 21:00 · Referee not yet confirmed

Head-to-head — last 5 at Real Madrid (home)

W 2025-10-04 Real Madrid 3–1 Villarreal
W 2024-10-05 Real Madrid 2–0 Villarreal
W 2023-12-17 Real Madrid 4–1 Villarreal
L 2023-04-08 Real Madrid 2–3 Villarreal
D 2021-09-25 Real Madrid 0–0 Villarreal
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): +0.28 → Real Madrid (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-09-15
AElche
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-15
AElche
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HVallecano
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HVallecano
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-04
ABetis
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HMalaga
W
4–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HMalaga
W
4–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-26
HSociedad
W
4–1
4–7
3–3
0–0
2026-08-26
HSociedad
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-22
AEspanol
W
2–1
8–0
1–5
0–0
2026-08-22
AEspanol
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-23
HAth Bilbao
W
4–2
2–1
2–0
0–0
2026-05-17
ASevilla
W
1–0
4–4
0–4
0–0
2026-05-14
HOviedo
W
2–0
4–5
0–0
0–0
2026-05-10
ABarcelona
L
0–2
8–4
4–2
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-09-14
HBetis
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-14
HBetis
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
HLa Coruna
L
2–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-28
AAlaves
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-28
AAlaves
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
AAth Madrid
D
2–2
3–5
2–3
0–1
2026-08-23
AAth Madrid
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-16
ASantander
D
2–2
10–6
4–2
0–0
2026-08-16
ASantander
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
HAth Madrid
W
5–1
5–9
0–1
0–0
2026-05-17
AVallecano
L
0–2
9–1
1–2
0–0
2026-05-13
HSevilla
L
2–3
6–4
2–1
0–0
2026-05-10
AMallorca
D
1–1
4–5
0–2
0–0
2026-05-02
HLevante
W
5–1
7–3
3–1
0–0
2026-04-26
HCelta
W
2–1
7–5
3–6
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-01-24
AVillarreal
W
2–0
6–6
1–3
0–0
2025-10-04
HVillarreal
W
3–1
4–0
2–4
0–1
2025-03-15
AVillarreal
W
2–1
4–11
1–2
0–0
2024-10-05
HVillarreal
W
2–0
2–5
0–1
0–0
2024-05-19
AVillarreal
D
4–4
3–3
2–3
0–0
2023-12-17
HVillarreal
W
4–1
11–0
2–3
0–0
2023-04-08
HVillarreal
L
2–3
6–7
0–3
0–0
2023-01-07
AVillarreal
L
1–2
5–6
1–4
0–0
2022-02-12
AVillarreal
D
0–0
3–3
4–2
0–0
2021-09-25
HVillarreal
D
0–0
6–3
1–2
0–0
2021-05-22
HVillarreal
W
2–1
6–1
0–0
0–0
2020-11-21
AVillarreal
D
1–1
2–4
2–1
0–0
2020-07-16
HVillarreal
W
2–1
4–2
3–2
0–0
2019-09-01
AVillarreal
D
2–2
8–1
4–1
1–0
2019-05-05
HVillarreal
W
3–2
8–3
0–3
0–0

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

First half lean: Real Madrid — higher 1H xG, SOT and possession
Real Madrid
Villarreal
Possession %
70
45
xG
0.69
0.56
Shots
7.6
4.0
On target
3.0
1.1
Off target
3.2
1.9
Corners
2.0
3.0
Yellow cards
1.1
0.0
Red cards
0.0
0.0
Second half lean: Real Madrid — higher 2H xG, SOT and possession
Real Madrid
Villarreal
Possession %
69
48
xG
1.08
0.74
Shots
8.7
6.1
On target
3.9
1.9
Off target
2.7
1.8
Corners
0.9
6.0
Yellow cards
0.0
1.0
Red cards
0.0
0.0

Full-time call

BET · OVER 2 5 (68.5%)
1 · Real Madrid
70%
X · Draw
17%
2 · Villarreal
13%
Real Madrid at home
Expected goals: 2.66
Conceded goals: 0.98
Villarreal away
Expected goals: 1.29
Conceded goals: 1.56
Projected for this match: Real Madrid 2.05 — 1.48 Villarreal
Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.05 — 1.48 Villarreal

Likely scores

1-19.2%
2-19.1%
2-26.8%

Goals markets

Over 1.587%
Over 2.568.5%
Over 3.547%
BTTS67.6%

Corners (90 min)

Real Madrid5.6
Villarreal4.5

Yellow cards (90 min)

Real Madrid2
Villarreal2.1
1H total1.3
2H total2.8

Second half

Real Madrid
46%
Level
35%
Villarreal
19%
Expected 2H goals Real Madrid 1.02 — 0.55 Villarreal

2H corners split

Expected total6
Real Madrid3.3
Villarreal2.7

2H yellow cards split

Expected total2.8
Real Madrid1.4
Villarreal1.5
2H reds (exp.)0.1

First half

Villarreal lead medium confidence
1H · Real Madrid
29%
1H · Draw
33%
1H · Villarreal
38%
Expected 1H goals Real Madrid 0.82 — 1 Villarreal · Over 0.5: Over (84%) · Over 1.5: Over (54%)

1H corners split

Expected total4.1
Real Madrid2.3
Villarreal1.8
O/U 3.5Over · 59%

1H yellow cards split

Expected total1.3
Real Madrid0.7
Villarreal0.7
O/U 1.5Under · 63%
2H expected total2.8
Real Madrid 2H1.4
Villarreal 2H1.5

Kylian Mbappe-Lottin (0.34 xG) is Real Madrid's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Dani Parejo (0.79 xG) is Villarreal's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Squad availability

Real Madrid · 3 listed

Ferland Mendyinjury
1 · Hip
Rodrygoinjury
1 · Cruciate ligame
Eder Militaoinjury
1 · Muscle

Villarreal · 1 listed

Juan Foythdoubt
1 · Muscle

Match analysis

Real Madrid vs Villarreal (La Liga). Model call: Real Madrid to win match full time (70% / 17% / 13%).

Real Madrid holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Real Madrid 2.05 — 1.48 Villarreal. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Real Madrid. Real Madrid home form +1.68; Villarreal away form -0.27.

First-half lean: Villarreal lead. Without Rodrygo, Real Madrid's full-time attack is trimmed.