Real Madrid
v
Vallecano

La Liga · Sat 12 Sep · 21:00 · Referee: Víctor García Verdura

Head-to-head — last 5 at Real Madrid (home)

W 2026-09-12 Real Madrid 4–1 Vallecano
W 2026-02-01 Real Madrid 2–1 Vallecano
W 2025-03-09 Real Madrid 2–1 Vallecano
D 2023-11-05 Real Madrid 0–0 Vallecano
W 2023-05-24 Real Madrid 2–1 Vallecano
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): +0.14 → Real Madrid (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-07
AValencia
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-11-01
ASantander
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-25
ABarcelona
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
HSevilla
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
HVillarreal
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-20
AAth Madrid
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-15
AElche
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-15
AElche
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HVallecano
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HVallecano
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-04
ABetis
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HMalaga
W
4–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HMalaga
W
4–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-26
HSociedad
W
4–1
4–7
3–3
0–0
2026-08-26
HSociedad
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
ASociedad
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
HCelta
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-24
HElche
L
0–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-19
AGetafe
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-19
AOsasuna
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-15
HEspanol
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-15
HEspanol
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
AReal Madrid
L
1–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
AReal Madrid
L
1–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
HSantander
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-31
ABarcelona
L
2–5
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-20
HAlaves
D
1–1
9–7
1–2
0–0
2026-08-20
HAlaves
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-15
ASevilla
L
1–2
2–1
4–4
0–1
2026-08-15
ASevilla
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-09-12
HVallecano
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-02-01
HVallecano
W
2–1
9–4
2–8
0–2
2025-11-09
AVallecano
D
0–0
8–5
2–3
0–0
2025-03-09
HVallecano
W
2–1
4–6
3–1
0–0
2024-12-14
AVallecano
D
3–3
3–4
2–4
0–0
2024-02-18
AVallecano
D
1–1
10–4
3–4
1–0
2023-11-05
HVallecano
D
0–0
11–1
3–5
0–0
2023-05-24
HVallecano
W
2–1
5–2
1–3
0–0
2022-11-07
AVallecano
L
2–3
5–4
5–4
0–0
2022-02-26
AVallecano
W
1–0
9–5
3–5
0–0
2021-11-06
HVallecano
W
2–1
4–5
1–2
0–0
2019-04-28
AVallecano
L
0–1
6–6
5–2
0–0
2018-12-15
HVallecano
W
1–0
4–4
0–3
0–0
2016-04-23
AVallecano
W
3–2
6–4
1–6
0–0
2015-12-20
HVallecano
W
10–2
10–4
1–2
0–2

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

First half lean: Real Madrid — higher 1H SOT, possession and shots
Real Madrid
Vallecano
Possession %
70
48
xG
0.69
0.63
Shots
7.6
4.2
On target
3.0
1.7
Off target
3.2
2.0
Corners
2.0
1.5
Yellow cards
1.1
0.0
Red cards
0.0
0.0
Second half lean: Real Madrid — higher 2H xG, SOT and possession
Real Madrid
Vallecano
Possession %
69
52
xG
1.08
0.68
Shots
8.7
7.2
On target
3.9
2.9
Off target
2.7
2.7
Corners
0.9
1.6
Yellow cards
0.0
2.1
Red cards
0.0
0.0

Full-time call

BET · HOME (73.7%)
1 · Real Madrid
74%
X · Draw
17%
2 · Vallecano
9%
Real Madrid at home
Expected goals: 2.66
Conceded goals: 0.98
Vallecano away
Expected goals: 0.94
Conceded goals: 1.5
Projected for this match: Real Madrid 1.94 — 1.05 Vallecano
Expected goals: Real Madrid 1.94 — 1.05 Vallecano

Likely scores

1-110.5%
2-19.9%
2-09.5%

Goals markets

Over 1.580.2%
Over 2.557.5%
Over 3.535.1%
BTTS55.9%

Corners (90 min)

Real Madrid5.6
Vallecano4.4

Yellow cards (90 min)

Real Madrid2.2
Vallecano2.5
1H total1.5
2H total3.2

Second half

Real Madrid
42%
Level
35%
Vallecano
23%
Expected 2H goals Real Madrid 0.96 — 0.63 Vallecano

2H corners split

Expected total5.7
Real Madrid3.2
Vallecano2.5

2H yellow cards split

Expected total3.2
Real Madrid1.5
Vallecano1.7
2H reds (exp.)0.1

First half

Level medium confidence
1H · Real Madrid
32%
1H · Draw
42%
1H · Vallecano
26%
Expected 1H goals Real Madrid 0.65 — 0.55 Vallecano · Over 0.5: Over (70%) · Over 1.5: Under (34%)

1H corners split

Expected total4.4
Real Madrid2.4
Vallecano1.9
O/U 4.5Under · 55%

1H yellow cards split

Expected total1.5
Real Madrid0.7
Vallecano0.8
O/U 1.5Under · 56%
2H expected total3.2
Real Madrid 2H1.5
Vallecano 2H1.7
1H reds (exp.)0.1

Kylian Mbappe-Lottin (0.34 xG) is Real Madrid's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Randy Nteka (0.38 xG) is Vallecano's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Squad availability

Real Madrid · 5 listed

Vinicius Juniorsuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Aurelien Tchouamenidoubt
1 · Muscle
Ferland Mendydoubt
1 · Hip
Rodrygoinjury
1 · Cruciate ligame
Raul Asenciodoubt
1 · Lower leg

Vallecano · 5 listed

Unai Lopezsuspension
1 · Yellow cards
Oscar Valentindoubt
1 · Knee
Alvaro Garciadoubt
1 · Other
Luiz Felipedoubt
1 · Other
Augusto Batallainjury
1 · Lower leg

Match analysis

Real Madrid vs Vallecano (La Liga). Model call: Real Madrid to win match full time (74% / 17% / 9%).

Real Madrid holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Real Madrid 1.94 — 1.05 Vallecano. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Real Madrid. Real Madrid home form +1.68; Vallecano away form -0.56.

First-half lean: Level. Without Vinicius Junior, Real Madrid's full-time attack is trimmed. Without Unai Lopez, Vallecano's full-time chance creation is trimmed.