Expected 1H goals Brentford 0.58 — 0.6 Nott'm Forest · Over 0.5: Over (69%)
· Over 1.5: Under (33%)
1H corners
Expected total5.2
Brentford2.4
Nott'm Forest2.8
O/U 5.5Under · 58%
1H yellow cards
Expected total0.8
Brentford0.3
Nott'm Forest0.5
O/U 1.5Under · 81%
2H expected total2.6
Brentford 2H1.3
Nott'm Forest 2H1.4
England averages 0.8 yellows before HT, which trims the 1H card line.
England averages 4.3 yellows and 0.2 reds after HT, which lifts the 2H card line.
Without Igor Thiago (0.45 xG), Brentford's first-half goal line is trimmed.
Lorenzo Lucca (0.19 xG) is Nott'm Forest's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.
Squad availability
Brentford · 5 listed
Igor Thiagosuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Joshua Dasilvainjury
1 · Thigh
Fabio Carvalhoinjury
1 · Knock
Rico Henryinjury
1 · Groin
Antoni Milamboinjury
1 · Knee
Nott'm Forest · 2 listed
Nicolas Dominguezinjury
1 · Other
Nicolo Savonainjury
1 · Knee
Match analysis
Brentford vs Nott'm Forest (Premier League). Model call: Brentford to win match full time (57% / 25% / 18%).
Brentford holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Brentford 1.57 — 1.17 Nott'm Forest. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Nott'm Forest. Brentford home form +0.82; Nott'm Forest away form +0.56.
First-half lean: No bet. Without Joshua Dasilva, Brentford's full-time chance creation is trimmed. Without Nicolas Dominguez, Nott'm Forest's full-time chance creation is trimmed.