Aston Villa
v
Nott'm Forest

Premier League · Sat 12 Sep · 16:00 · Referee: Andy Madley

Head-to-head — last 5 at Aston Villa (home)

L 2026-09-12 Aston Villa 1–2 Nott'm Forest
W 2026-01-03 Aston Villa 3–1 Nott'm Forest
W 2025-04-05 Aston Villa 2–1 Nott'm Forest
W 2024-02-24 Aston Villa 4–2 Nott'm Forest
W 2023-04-08 Aston Villa 2–0 Nott'm Forest
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): +0.14 → Aston Villa (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-09-12
HNott'm Forest
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
ABrighton
L
0–4
2–5
3–2
1–0
2026-05-24
AMan City
W
2–1
4–9
0–1
0–0
2026-05-15
HLiverpool
W
4–2
4–9
3–1
0–0
2026-05-10
ABurnley
D
2–2
8–2
1–1
0–0
2026-05-03
HTottenham
L
1–2
5–5
2–5
0–0
2026-04-25
AFulham
L
0–1
5–2
2–2
0–0
2026-04-19
HSunderland
W
4–3
4–5
1–3
0–0
2026-04-12
ANott'm Forest
D
1–1
3–7
2–2
0–0
2026-03-22
HWest Ham
W
2–0
6–6
0–1
0–0
2026-03-15
AMan United
L
1–3
6–6
2–3
0–0
2026-03-04
HChelsea
L
1–4
3–8
3–2
0–0
2026-02-27
AWolves
L
0–2
5–0
3–3
0–0
2026-02-21
HLeeds
D
1–1
7–2
1–4
0–0
2026-02-11
HBrighton
W
1–0
7–5
2–3
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-09-12
AAston Villa
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-29
ALiverpool
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-22
HLeeds
L
0–1
3–2
2–1
0–0
2026-05-24
HBournemouth
D
1–1
6–3
1–1
0–0
2026-05-17
AMan United
L
2–3
6–7
1–2
0–0
2026-05-10
HNewcastle
D
1–1
2–1
2–0
0–0
2026-05-04
AChelsea
W
3–1
1–10
1–3
0–0
2026-04-24
ASunderland
W
5–0
6–3
5–2
0–0
2026-04-19
HBurnley
W
4–1
4–4
0–2
0–0
2026-04-12
HAston Villa
D
1–1
7–3
2–2
0–0
2026-03-22
ATottenham
W
3–0
3–13
2–1
0–0
2026-03-15
HFulham
D
0–0
5–4
2–3
0–0
2026-03-04
AMan City
D
2–2
1–6
4–0
0–0
2026-03-01
ABrighton
L
1–2
4–4
1–3
0–0
2026-02-22
HLiverpool
L
0–1
7–2
2–0
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-09-12
HNott'm Forest
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-04-12
ANott'm Forest
D
1–1
3–7
2–2
0–0
2026-01-03
HNott'm Forest
W
3–1
4–4
1–2
0–0
2025-04-05
HNott'm Forest
W
2–1
4–4
2–2
0–0
2024-12-14
ANott'm Forest
L
1–2
3–4
1–0
0–0
2024-02-24
HNott'm Forest
W
4–2
7–2
1–2
0–0
2023-11-05
ANott'm Forest
L
0–2
10–0
1–1
0–0
2023-04-08
HNott'm Forest
W
2–0
1–8
3–4
0–0
2022-10-10
ANott'm Forest
D
1–1
4–1
3–3
0–0

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

First half lean: Aston Villa — higher 1H xG and possession
Aston Villa
Nott'm Forest
Possession %
47
41
xG
0.70
0.56
Shots
5.2
4.8
On target
2.0
2.2
Off target
1.6
1.4
Corners
1.8
3.2
Yellow cards
0.6
0.3
Red cards
0.0
0.0
Second half lean: Aston Villa — higher 2H xG, SOT and possession
Aston Villa
Nott'm Forest
Possession %
53
41
xG
1.25
0.86
Shots
8.0
4.8
On target
3.6
2.3
Off target
2.1
1.1
Corners
3.2
1.0
Yellow cards
1.1
1.7
Red cards
0.0
0.0

Full-time call

NO BET
1 · Aston Villa
36%
X · Draw
31%
2 · Nott'm Forest
33%
Aston Villa at home
Expected goals: 1.91
Conceded goals: 1.43
Nott'm Forest away
Expected goals: 2
Conceded goals: 1.45
Projected for this match: Aston Villa 1.32 — 1.59 Nott'm Forest
Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.32 — 1.59 Nott'm Forest

Likely scores

1-111.8%
1-29.1%
0-18.3%

Goals markets

Over 1.579%
Over 2.555.6%
Over 3.533.3%
BTTS58.7%

Corners (90 min)

Aston Villa4.7
Nott'm Forest4.9

Yellow cards (90 min)

Aston Villa1.6
Nott'm Forest1.9
1H total1
2H total2.4
Madley averages 3.3 yellows a match, which trims the full-time card line.

Second half

Aston Villa
33%
Level
35%
Nott'm Forest
32%
Expected 2H goals Aston Villa 0.84 — 0.82 Nott'm Forest

2H corners

Expected total4.9
Aston Villa2.6
Nott'm Forest2.3

2H yellow cards

Expected total2.4
Aston Villa1.1
Nott'm Forest1.3

First half

No bet no-bet confidence
1H · Aston Villa
17%
1H · Draw
38%
1H · Nott'm Forest
45%
Expected 1H goals Aston Villa 0.46 — 0.92 Nott'm Forest · Over 0.5: Over (75%) · Over 1.5: Under (40%)

1H corners

Expected total4.8
Aston Villa2.1
Nott'm Forest2.6
O/U 4.5Over · 52%

1H yellow cards

Expected total1
Aston Villa0.5
Nott'm Forest0.6
O/U 1.5Under · 74%
2H expected total2.4
Aston Villa 2H1.1
Nott'm Forest 2H1.3
Madley averages 0.7 yellows and 0.3 reds before HT, which trims the 1H card line.
Madley averages 2.3 yellows after HT, which trims the 2H card line.

Ollie Watkins (0.28 xG) is Aston Villa's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Lorenzo Lucca (0.19 xG) is Nott'm Forest's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Squad availability

Aston Villa · 5 listed

Joao Gomessuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Pau Torresdoubt
1 · Other
Brian Madjodoubt
1 · Ankle
Leon Goretzkainjury
1 · Knee
Amadou Onanainjury
1 · Knee

Nott'm Forest · 1 listed

Nicolo Savonainjury
1 · Knee

Match analysis

Aston Villa vs Nott'm Forest (Premier League). Model call: Aston Villa to win match full time (36% / 31% / 33%).

Projected xG Aston Villa 1.32 — 1.59 Nott'm Forest. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Aston Villa. Aston Villa home form +0.49; Nott'm Forest away form +0.56.

First-half lean: No bet. Without Joao Gomes, Aston Villa's full-time chance creation is trimmed.