Expected 1H goals Crystal Palace 0.48 — 0.93 Newcastle · Over 0.5: Over (75%)
· Over 1.5: Under (41%)
1H corners
Expected total4
Crystal Palace1.8
Newcastle2.2
O/U 3.5Over · 57%
1H yellow cards
Expected total0.9
Crystal Palace0.5
Newcastle0.4
O/U 1.5Under · 77%
2H expected total2.9
Crystal Palace 2H1.7
Newcastle 2H1.2
Tierney averages 1.1 yellows before HT, around the usual 1H card pace.
Tierney averages 2.4 yellows after HT, which trims the 2H card line.
Without Jean-Philippe Mateta (0.26 xG), Crystal Palace's first-half goal line is trimmed.
Nick Woltemade (0.31 xG) is Newcastle's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.
Squad availability
Crystal Palace · 5 listed
Jean-Philippe Matetasuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
J. Strand Larsendoubt
1 · Ankle
Ismaila Sarrinjury
1 · Groin
Takehiro Tomiyasuinjury
1 · Calf
Chadi Riadinjury
1 · Knee
Newcastle · 3 listed
Jacob Ramseysuspension
1 · 2nd yellow (Red)
Joelintoninjury
1 · Other
Ewen Jaoueninjury
1 · Thigh
Match analysis
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle (Premier League). Model call: Newcastle to win match full time (25% / 33% / 42%).
Newcastle holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Crystal Palace 1.1 — 1.55 Newcastle. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace home form -0.21; Newcastle away form -0.55.
First-half lean: No bet. Without Jean-Philippe Mateta, Crystal Palace's full-time attack is trimmed as well. Without Jacob Ramsey, Newcastle's full-time chance creation is trimmed.