Aston Villa
v
Man City

Premier League · Sat 24 Oct · 13:30 · Referee: Peter Bankes

Head-to-head — last 5 at Aston Villa (home)

W 2026-10-24 Aston Villa 2–1 Man City
W 2025-10-26 Aston Villa 1–0 Man City
W 2024-12-21 Aston Villa 2–1 Man City
W 2023-12-06 Aston Villa 1–0 Man City
D 2022-09-03 Aston Villa 1–1 Man City
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): +0.07 → Aston Villa (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
AMan United
D
4–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
HFulham
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-24
HMan City
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-17
ANewcastle
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
HBrentford
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-19
ATottenham
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HNott'm Forest
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HNott'm Forest
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
AHull
D
0–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-31
HArsenal
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
ABrighton
L
0–4
2–5
3–2
1–0
2026-08-23
ABrighton
L
0–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
AMan City
W
2–1
4–9
0–1
0–0
2026-05-15
HLiverpool
W
4–2
4–9
3–1
0–0
2026-05-10
ABurnley
D
2–2
8–2
1–1
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-07
ANott'm Forest
L
1–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
HBrighton
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-24
AAston Villa
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-17
HIpswich
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-11
ALiverpool
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-20
HSunderland
W
5–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-13
AMan United
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-13
AMan United
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
HCoventry
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-28
ACrystal Palace
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-28
ACrystal Palace
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
HBournemouth
W
2–1
8–3
1–2
0–0
2026-08-23
HBournemouth
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
HAston Villa
L
1–2
9–4
1–0
0–0
2026-05-19
ABournemouth
D
1–1
6–7
2–4
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-10-24
HMan City
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
AMan City
W
2–1
4–9
0–1
0–0
2025-10-26
HMan City
W
1–0
5–6
1–4
0–0
2025-04-22
AMan City
L
1–2
2–10
3–3
0–0
2024-12-21
HMan City
W
2–1
5–4
3–3
0–0
2024-04-03
AMan City
L
1–4
3–2
2–1
0–0
2023-12-06
HMan City
W
1–0
6–0
2–2
0–0
2023-02-12
AMan City
L
1–3
4–8
2–1
0–0
2022-09-03
HMan City
D
1–1
1–4
2–0
0–0
2022-05-22
AMan City
L
2–3
1–13
1–0
0–0
2021-12-01
HMan City
L
1–2
4–11
0–0
0–0
2021-04-21
HMan City
L
1–2
1–11
0–1
1–1
2021-01-20
AMan City
L
0–2
2–16
2–0
0–0
2020-01-12
HMan City
L
1–6
2–4
2–1
0–0
2019-10-26
AMan City
L
0–3
7–13
1–1
0–1

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

First half lean: Man City — higher 1H xG, SOT and possession
Aston Villa
Man City
Possession %
47
67
xG
0.70
0.87
Shots
5.2
7.6
On target
2.0
2.7
Off target
1.6
2.1
Corners
1.8
4.0
Yellow cards
0.6
0.5
Red cards
0.0
0.0
Second half lean: Aston Villa — higher 2H xG and SOT
Aston Villa
Man City
Possession %
53
62
xG
1.25
1.06
Shots
8.0
9.4
On target
3.6
2.8
Off target
2.1
3.3
Corners
3.2
4.6
Yellow cards
1.1
1.1
Red cards
0.0
0.0

Full-time call

NO BET
1 · Aston Villa
17%
X · Draw
26%
2 · Man City
57%
Aston Villa at home
Expected goals: 1.91
Conceded goals: 1.43
Man City away
Expected goals: 1.67
Conceded goals: 1.08
Projected for this match: Aston Villa 1.16 — 1.92 Man City
Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.16 — 1.92 Man City

Likely scores

1-110.6%
1-29.8%
0-18.5%

Goals markets

Over 1.581.5%
Over 2.559.4%
Over 3.537%
BTTS58.8%

Corners (90 min)

Aston Villa4.3
Man City6.8

Yellow cards (90 min)

Aston Villa1.9
Man City1.8
1H total1.3
2H total2.5
Bankes averages 4.0 yellows a match, around the usual full-time card pace.

Second half

Aston Villa
30%
Level
35%
Man City
35%
Expected 2H goals Aston Villa 0.8 — 0.9 Man City

2H corners

Expected total6.1
Aston Villa2.6
Man City3.5

2H yellow cards

Expected total2.5
Aston Villa1.3
Man City1.2

First half

No bet no-bet confidence
1H · Aston Villa
15%
1H · Draw
37%
1H · Man City
48%
Expected 1H goals Aston Villa 0.42 — 0.98 Man City · Over 0.5: Over (75%) · Over 1.5: Under (41%)

1H corners

Expected total5
Aston Villa1.7
Man City3.3
O/U 4.5Over · 56%

1H yellow cards

Expected total1.3
Aston Villa0.7
Man City0.6
O/U 1.5Under · 63%
2H expected total2.5
Aston Villa 2H1.3
Man City 2H1.2
Bankes averages 1.6 yellows and 0.3 reds before HT, which lifts the 1H card line.
Bankes averages 1.6 yellows after HT, which trims the 2H card line.

Ollie Watkins (0.28 xG) is Aston Villa's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Erling Haaland (0.44 xG) is Man City's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Squad availability

Aston Villa · 4 listed

Matty Cashsuspension
1 · Yellow cards
Johan Manzambidoubt
1 · Calf
Matteo Ruggeriinjury
1 · Thigh
Amadou Onanainjury
1 · Knee

Man City · 5 listed

Mateo Kovacicsuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Abdukodir Khusanovdoubt
1 · Other
Marc Guehidoubt
1 · Hip
Jack Grealishsuspension
1 · Banned by club
Antoine Semenyoinjury
1 · Knee

Match analysis

Aston Villa vs Man City (Premier League). Model call: Man City to win match full time (17% / 26% / 57%).

Man City holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Aston Villa 1.16 — 1.92 Man City. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Aston Villa. Aston Villa home form +0.49; Man City away form +0.6.

First-half lean: No bet. Without Matteo Ruggeri, Aston Villa's full-time chance creation is trimmed. Without Mateo Kovacic, Man City's full-time chance creation is trimmed.