Arsenal
v
Leeds

Premier League · Sat 10 Oct · 13:30 · Referee: Paul Tierney

Head-to-head — last 5 at Arsenal (home)

W 2026-10-10 Arsenal 2–1 Leeds
W 2025-08-23 Arsenal 5–0 Leeds
W 2023-04-01 Arsenal 4–1 Leeds
W 2022-05-08 Arsenal 2–1 Leeds
W 2021-02-14 Arsenal 4–2 Leeds
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): +0.35 → Arsenal (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-07
HHull
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-11-01
ALiverpool
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-24
HEverton
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
ANott'm Forest
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
HLeeds
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-19
ABrighton
L
0–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
ASunderland
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
ASunderland
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-06
HChelsea
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-31
AAston Villa
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-21
HCoventry
W
3–0
8–2
1–1
0–0
2026-08-21
HCoventry
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
ACrystal Palace
W
2–1
4–3
1–0
0–0
2026-05-18
HBurnley
W
1–0
3–3
1–3
0–0
2026-05-10
AWest Ham
W
1–0
3–4
4–3
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-07
HTottenham
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
ABournemouth
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-25
ASunderland
D
0–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
HMan United
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
AArsenal
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-20
HCrystal Palace
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-14
HNewcastle
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-14
HNewcastle
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
ABrighton
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HBrentford
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HBrentford
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-22
ANott'm Forest
W
1–0
2–3
1–2
0–0
2026-08-22
ANott'm Forest
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
AWest Ham
L
0–3
4–6
3–0
0–0
2026-05-17
HBrighton
W
1–0
7–8
1–0
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-10-10
HLeeds
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-01-31
ALeeds
W
4–0
12–4
1–1
0–0
2025-08-23
HLeeds
W
5–0
2–2
0–2
0–0
2023-04-01
HLeeds
W
4–1
4–3
0–2
0–0
2022-10-16
ALeeds
W
1–0
3–6
2–0
0–0
2022-05-08
HLeeds
W
2–1
8–2
2–2
0–1
2021-12-18
ALeeds
W
4–1
4–1
1–3
0–0
2021-02-14
HLeeds
W
4–2
4–5
0–2
0–0
2020-11-22
ALeeds
D
0–0
3–5
0–3
1–0

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

First half lean: Arsenal — higher 1H xG, SOT and possession
Arsenal
Leeds
Possession %
59
44
xG
1.13
0.79
Shots
8.3
4.8
On target
2.6
1.6
Off target
2.9
1.8
Corners
3.0
1.2
Yellow cards
0.1
0.9
Red cards
0.0
0.1
Second half lean: Arsenal — higher 2H xG, SOT and corners
Arsenal
Leeds
Possession %
48
46
xG
1.03
0.83
Shots
7.4
6.6
On target
2.8
2.2
Off target
2.4
2.6
Corners
2.4
1.6
Yellow cards
0.9
1.0
Red cards
0.0
0.0

Full-time call

BET · HOME (71.1%)
1 · Arsenal
71%
X · Draw
21%
2 · Leeds
8%
Arsenal at home
Expected goals: 2.06
Conceded goals: 0.5
Leeds away
Expected goals: 1.08
Conceded goals: 1.47
Projected for this match: Arsenal 1.62 — 0.82 Leeds
Expected goals: Arsenal 1.62 — 0.82 Leeds

Likely scores

1-013.7%
1-111.9%
2-011.4%

Goals markets

Over 1.570.5%
Over 2.544.3%
Over 3.523.1%
BTTS45.4%

Corners (90 min)

Arsenal5.9
Leeds3.8

Yellow cards (90 min)

Arsenal1.6
Leeds1.8
1H total1.2
2H total2.2
Tierney averages 3.4 yellows a match, which trims the full-time card line.

Second half

Arsenal
39%
Level
38%
Leeds
23%
Expected 2H goals Arsenal 0.83 — 0.57 Leeds

2H corners

Expected total5.1
Arsenal2.8
Leeds2.2

2H yellow cards

Expected total2.2
Arsenal1
Leeds1.1

First half

Level medium confidence
1H · Arsenal
36%
1H · Draw
48%
1H · Leeds
16%
Expected 1H goals Arsenal 0.61 — 0.33 Leeds · Over 0.5: Over (61%) · Over 1.5: Under (24%)

1H corners

Expected total4.6
Arsenal3.1
Leeds1.5
O/U 4.5Even · 49%

1H yellow cards

Expected total1.2
Arsenal0.5
Leeds0.6
O/U 1.5Under · 66%
2H expected total2.2
Arsenal 2H1
Leeds 2H1.1
Tierney averages 1.1 yellows before HT, around the usual 1H card pace.
Tierney averages 2.4 yellows after HT, which trims the 2H card line.

Viktor Gyokeres (0.29 xG) is Arsenal's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (0.26 xG) is Leeds' main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Squad availability

Arsenal · 4 listed

Max Dowmansuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Ezri Konsadoubt
1 · Other
William Salibadoubt
1 · Low back
Bukayo Sakainjury
1 · Thigh

Leeds · 2 listed

Anton Stachdoubt
1 · Ankle
Mateo Josephinjury
1 · Ankle

Match analysis

Arsenal vs Leeds (Premier League). Model call: Arsenal to win match full time (71% / 21% / 8%).

Arsenal holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Arsenal 1.62 — 0.82 Leeds. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Arsenal. Arsenal home form +1.56; Leeds away form -0.4.

First-half lean: Level. Without Max Dowman, Arsenal's full-time chance creation is trimmed. Without Mateo Joseph, Leeds' full-time attack is trimmed.