Sunderland
v
Brighton

Premier League · Sat 10 Oct · 16:00 · Referee: Thomas Bramall

Head-to-head — last 2 at Sunderland (home)

L 2026-10-10 Sunderland 0–2 Brighton
L 2026-03-14 Sunderland 0–1 Brighton
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): -0.07 → Brighton (2 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
HChelsea
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
ACoventry
L
1–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-25
HLeeds
D
0–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
ABournemouth
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
HBrighton
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-20
AMan City
L
3–5
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HArsenal
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HArsenal
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
ABrentford
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HFulham
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HFulham
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-22
AIpswich
L
1–2
5–3
3–0
0–0
2026-08-22
AIpswich
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
HChelsea
W
2–1
7–7
3–2
0–0
2026-05-17
AEverton
W
3–1
2–3
0–3
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
HBrentford
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
AMan City
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-25
ALiverpool
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
HCrystal Palace
W
5–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
ASunderland
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-19
HArsenal
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-13
ACoventry
W
5–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-13
ACoventry
W
5–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
HLeeds
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
AChelsea
L
3–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
AChelsea
L
3–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
HAston Villa
W
4–0
5–2
2–3
0–1
2026-08-23
HAston Villa
W
4–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
HMan United
L
0–3
0–3
0–1
0–0
2026-05-17
ALeeds
L
0–1
8–7
0–1
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-10-10
HBrighton
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-03-14
HBrighton
L
0–1
7–3
1–2
0–0
2025-12-20
ABrighton
D
0–0
4–3
2–2
0–0

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

Too close to call
Sunderland
Brighton
Possession %
51
61
xG
0.69
0.61
Shots
6.9
4.8
On target
2.0
2.2
Off target
2.2
1.3
Corners
3.0
2.6
Yellow cards
0.4
0.8
Red cards
0.0
0.0
Second half lean: Brighton — higher 2H xG, SOT and possession
Sunderland
Brighton
Possession %
50
57
xG
0.66
0.98
Shots
7.2
8.4
On target
2.1
2.6
Off target
3.1
3.1
Corners
1.6
3.5
Yellow cards
1.9
0.8
Red cards
0.0
0.0

Full-time call

NO BET
1 · Sunderland
19%
X · Draw
30%
2 · Brighton
51%
Sunderland at home
Expected goals: 1.04
Conceded goals: 1.23
Brighton away
Expected goals: 1.17
Conceded goals: 1.3
Projected for this match: Sunderland 1.11 — 1.68 Brighton
Expected goals: Sunderland 1.11 — 1.68 Brighton

Likely scores

1-111.8%
0-110%
1-29.6%

Goals markets

Over 1.577%
Over 2.552.7%
Over 3.530.5%
BTTS54.8%

Corners (90 min)

Sunderland4.4
Brighton5.3

Yellow cards (90 min)

Sunderland2.2
Brighton1.8
1H total1.2
2H total2.8
Bramall averages 3.9 yellows and 0.2 reds a match, which trims the full-time card line.

Second half

Sunderland
28%
Level
41%
Brighton
31%
Expected 2H goals Sunderland 0.63 — 0.67 Brighton

2H corners

Expected total4.3
Sunderland1.6
Brighton2.7

2H yellow cards

Expected total2.8
Sunderland1.6
Brighton1.1
2H reds (exp.)0.1

First half

No bet no-bet confidence
1H · Sunderland
20%
1H · Draw
37%
1H · Brighton
43%
Expected 1H goals Sunderland 0.52 — 0.92 Brighton · Over 0.5: Over (76%) · Over 1.5: Under (42%)

1H corners

Expected total5.4
Sunderland2.8
Brighton2.6
O/U 5.5Under · 55%

1H yellow cards

Expected total1.2
Sunderland0.5
Brighton0.6
O/U 1.5Under · 66%
2H expected total2.8
Sunderland 2H1.6
Brighton 2H1.1
Bramall averages 1.6 yellows before HT, which lifts the 1H card line.
Bramall averages 3.1 yellows after HT, which lifts the 2H card line.

Eliezer Mayenda (0.16 xG) is Sunderland's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Danny Welbeck (0.25 xG) is Brighton's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Squad availability

Sunderland · 6 listed

Omar Alderetesuspension
1 · 2nd yellow (Red)
Granit Xhakadoubt
1 · Calf
Brian Brobbeydoubt
1 · Other
Daniel Ballardinjury
1 · Thigh
Habib Diarrainjury
1 · Thigh
Romaine Mundleinjury
1 · Knee

Brighton · 8 listed

Matias Orozcosuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Pascal Struijkdoubt
1 · Thigh
Femi Azeezinjury
1 · Thigh
Zadok Yohannainjury
1 · Other
Kaoru Mitomainjury
1 · Hamstring
Stefanos Tzimasinjury
1 · Cruciate ligame
Evan Fergusoninjury
1 · Ankle
Carlos Balebainjury
1 · Thigh

Match analysis

Sunderland vs Brighton (Premier League). Model call: Brighton to win match full time (19% / 30% / 51%).

Brighton holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Sunderland 1.11 — 1.68 Brighton. H2H (2 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Brighton. Sunderland home form -0.19; Brighton away form -0.13.

First-half lean: No bet. Without Habib Diarra, Sunderland's full-time chance creation is trimmed. Without Matias Orozco, Brighton's full-time chance creation is trimmed.