Man City
v
Brighton

Premier League · Sat 31 Oct · 17:00 · Referee: Craig Pawson

Head-to-head — last 5 at Man City (home)

L 2026-10-31 Man City 0–1 Brighton
D 2026-01-07 Man City 1–1 Brighton
D 2025-03-15 Man City 2–2 Brighton
W 2023-10-21 Man City 2–1 Brighton
W 2022-10-22 Man City 3–1 Brighton
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): -0.07 → Brighton (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-07
ANott'm Forest
L
1–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
HBrighton
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-24
AAston Villa
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-17
HIpswich
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-11
ALiverpool
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-20
HSunderland
W
5–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-13
AMan United
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-13
AMan United
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
HCoventry
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-28
ACrystal Palace
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-28
ACrystal Palace
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
HBournemouth
W
2–1
8–3
1–2
0–0
2026-08-23
HBournemouth
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
HAston Villa
L
1–2
9–4
1–0
0–0
2026-05-19
ABournemouth
D
1–1
6–7
2–4
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
HBrentford
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
AMan City
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-25
ALiverpool
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
HCrystal Palace
W
5–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
ASunderland
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-19
HArsenal
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-13
ACoventry
W
5–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-13
ACoventry
W
5–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
HLeeds
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
AChelsea
L
3–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
AChelsea
L
3–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
HAston Villa
W
4–0
5–2
2–3
0–1
2026-08-23
HAston Villa
W
4–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
HMan United
L
0–3
0–3
0–1
0–0
2026-05-17
ALeeds
L
0–1
8–7
0–1
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-10-31
HBrighton
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-01-07
HBrighton
D
1–1
6–2
1–6
0–0
2025-08-31
ABrighton
L
1–2
2–3
2–2
0–0
2025-03-15
HBrighton
D
2–2
4–5
2–5
0–0
2024-11-09
ABrighton
L
1–2
4–0
3–3
0–0
2024-04-25
ABrighton
W
4–0
4–4
0–2
0–0
2023-10-21
HBrighton
W
2–1
2–2
2–2
1–0
2023-05-24
ABrighton
D
1–1
1–5
1–2
0–0
2022-10-22
HBrighton
W
3–1
7–3
1–3
0–0
2022-04-20
HBrighton
W
3–0
7–4
0–3
0–0
2021-10-23
ABrighton
W
4–1
6–7
3–2
0–0
2021-05-18
ABrighton
L
2–3
3–5
3–3
1–0
2021-01-13
HBrighton
W
1–0
8–4
0–2
0–0
2020-07-11
ABrighton
W
5–0
7–2
0–1
0–0
2019-08-31
HBrighton
W
4–0
8–1
1–1
0–0

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

First half lean: Man City — higher 1H xG, SOT and possession
Man City
Brighton
Possession %
65
61
xG
1.29
0.61
Shots
9.7
4.8
On target
3.1
2.2
Off target
3.6
1.3
Corners
5.0
2.6
Yellow cards
0.3
0.8
Red cards
0.0
0.0
Second half lean: Brighton — higher 2H shots
Man City
Brighton
Possession %
57
57
xG
1.12
0.98
Shots
7.3
8.4
On target
2.6
2.6
Off target
2.5
3.1
Corners
3.1
3.5
Yellow cards
1.2
0.8
Red cards
0.0
0.0

Full-time call

NO BET
1 · Man City
48%
X · Draw
30%
2 · Brighton
22%
Man City at home
Expected goals: 2.22
Conceded goals: 0.81
Brighton away
Expected goals: 1.17
Conceded goals: 1.3
Projected for this match: Man City 1.54 — 1.44 Brighton
Expected goals: Man City 1.54 — 1.44 Brighton

Likely scores

1-111.6%
2-18.7%
1-28.1%

Goals markets

Over 1.580.2%
Over 2.557.3%
Over 3.534.9%
BTTS60.3%

Corners (90 min)

Man City6.3
Brighton4.4

Yellow cards (90 min)

Man City1.8
Brighton1.9
1H total1
2H total2.7
Pawson averages 3.6 yellows a match, which trims the full-time card line.

Second half

Man City
35%
Level
40%
Brighton
25%
Expected 2H goals Man City 0.76 — 0.6 Brighton

2H corners

Expected total5
Man City2.5
Brighton2.5

2H yellow cards

Expected total2.7
Man City1.4
Brighton1.3

First half

No bet no-bet confidence
1H · Man City
31%
1H · Draw
39%
1H · Brighton
30%
Expected 1H goals Man City 0.7 — 0.7 Brighton · Over 0.5: Over (75%) · Over 1.5: Under (41%)

1H corners

Expected total5.7
Man City3.8
Brighton1.9
O/U 5.5Even · 51%

1H yellow cards

Expected total1
Man City0.4
Brighton0.6
O/U 1.5Under · 74%
2H expected total2.7
Man City 2H1.4
Brighton 2H1.3
Pawson averages 0.6 yellows before HT, which trims the 1H card line.
Pawson averages 3.1 yellows after HT, which lifts the 2H card line.

Erling Haaland (0.44 xG) is Man City's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Danny Welbeck (0.25 xG) is Brighton's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Squad availability

Man City · 5 listed

Mateo Kovacicsuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Abdukodir Khusanovdoubt
1 · Other
Marc Guehidoubt
1 · Hip
Jack Grealishsuspension
1 · Banned by club
Antoine Semenyoinjury
1 · Knee

Brighton · 8 listed

Matias Orozcosuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Pascal Struijkdoubt
1 · Thigh
Femi Azeezinjury
1 · Thigh
Zadok Yohannainjury
1 · Other
Kaoru Mitomainjury
1 · Hamstring
Stefanos Tzimasinjury
1 · Cruciate ligame
Evan Fergusoninjury
1 · Ankle
Carlos Balebainjury
1 · Thigh

Match analysis

Man City vs Brighton (Premier League). Model call: Man City to win match full time (48% / 30% / 22%).

Man City holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Man City 1.54 — 1.44 Brighton. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Brighton. Man City home form +1.41; Brighton away form -0.13.

First-half lean: No bet. Without Mateo Kovacic, Man City's full-time chance creation is trimmed. Without Matias Orozco, Brighton's full-time chance creation is trimmed.