Expected 1H goals Newcastle 0.55 — 0.57 Bournemouth · Over 0.5: Over (67%)
· Over 1.5: Under (31%)
1H corners
Expected total4.8
Newcastle2.8
Bournemouth2
O/U 4.5Over · 52%
1H yellow cards
Expected total1
Newcastle0.4
Bournemouth0.6
O/U 1.5Under · 74%
2H expected total3.3
Newcastle 2H1.6
Bournemouth 2H1.8
Jones averages 2.8 yellows before HT, which lifts the 1H card line.
Jones averages 2.5 yellows after HT, which trims the 2H card line.
Nick Woltemade (0.31 xG) is Newcastle's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.
Evanilson (0.27 xG) is Bournemouth's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.
Squad availability
Newcastle · 6 listed
Jacob Ramseyinjury
1 · Thigh
Ewen Jaoueninjury
1 · Ankle
Anthony Elangadoubt
1 · Other
Joelintoninjury
1 · Groin
William Osulainjury
1 · Ankle
Daniel Burninjury
1 · Ankle
Bournemouth · 5 listed
Tyler Adamsdoubt
1 · Other
Veljko Milosavljevicinjury
1 · Knee
Amine Adliinjury
1 · Calf
Julian Araujoinjury
1 · Thigh
Eli Junior Kroupiinjury
1 · Foot
Match analysis
Newcastle vs Bournemouth (Premier League). Model call: Newcastle to win match full time (40% / 30% / 30%).
Bournemouth holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Newcastle 1.41 — 1.41 Bournemouth. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Bournemouth. Newcastle home form +0.32; Bournemouth away form +0.01.
First-half lean: No bet. Without Jacob Ramsey, Newcastle's full-time chance creation is trimmed. Without Veljko Milosavljevic, Bournemouth's full-time chance creation is trimmed.