Chelsea
v
Bournemouth

Premier League · Sat 10 Oct · 16:00 · Referee: Sam Barrott

Head-to-head — last 5 at Chelsea (home)

W 2026-10-10 Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth
D 2025-12-30 Chelsea 2–2 Bournemouth
D 2025-01-14 Chelsea 2–2 Bournemouth
W 2024-05-19 Chelsea 2–1 Bournemouth
W 2022-12-27 Chelsea 2–0 Bournemouth
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): +0.14 → Chelsea (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
ASunderland
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
HMan United
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-24
HTottenham
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-17
AEverton
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
HBournemouth
W
5–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-18
ABrentford
L
0–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HHull
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HHull
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-06
AArsenal
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HBrighton
W
4–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HBrighton
W
4–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-24
AFulham
W
3–2
4–6
3–2
0–0
2026-08-24
AFulham
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
ASunderland
L
1–2
7–7
2–3
0–0
2026-05-19
HTottenham
W
2–1
3–4
4–3
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
AIpswich
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
HLeeds
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-25
AMan United
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
HSunderland
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
AChelsea
L
1–5
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-20
HLiverpool
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HBrentford
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HBrentford
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
ANewcastle
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-29
HEverton
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-29
HEverton
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
AMan City
L
1–2
3–8
2–1
0–0
2026-08-23
AMan City
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
ANott'm Forest
D
1–1
3–6
1–1
0–0
2026-05-19
HMan City
D
1–1
7–6
4–2
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-10-10
HBournemouth
W
5–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2025-12-30
HBournemouth
D
2–2
12–3
1–1
0–0
2025-12-06
ABournemouth
D
0–0
0–5
2–0
0–0
2025-01-14
HBournemouth
D
2–2
9–3
2–3
0–0
2024-09-14
ABournemouth
W
1–0
3–6
8–6
0–0
2024-05-19
HBournemouth
W
2–1
6–5
2–3
0–0
2023-09-17
ABournemouth
D
0–0
7–1
5–1
0–0
2023-05-06
ABournemouth
W
3–1
7–7
3–1
0–0
2022-12-27
HBournemouth
W
2–0
6–8
0–0
0–0
2020-02-29
ABournemouth
D
2–2
14–4
2–2
0–0
2019-12-14
HBournemouth
L
0–1
9–4
1–2
0–0
2019-01-30
ABournemouth
L
0–4
7–3
0–1
0–0
2018-09-01
HBournemouth
W
2–0
7–6
2–2
0–0
2018-01-31
HBournemouth
L
0–3
8–5
1–0
0–0
2017-10-28
ABournemouth
W
1–0
5–5
0–2
0–0

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

First half lean: Chelsea — higher 1H SOT, possession and corners
Chelsea
Bournemouth
Possession %
56
49
xG
0.56
0.88
Shots
6.5
6.1
On target
2.4
1.6
Off target
2.0
2.3
Corners
2.6
1.8
Yellow cards
0.8
0.3
Red cards
0.0
0.2
Second half lean: Chelsea — higher 2H xG, possession and shots
Chelsea
Bournemouth
Possession %
55
49
xG
1.22
0.96
Shots
9.0
7.1
On target
2.4
2.9
Off target
2.6
2.2
Corners
3.6
1.5
Yellow cards
2.0
1.8
Red cards
0.0
0.0

Full-time call

NO BET
1 · Chelsea
41%
X · Draw
29%
2 · Bournemouth
30%
Chelsea at home
Expected goals: 1.23
Conceded goals: 1.49
Bournemouth away
Expected goals: 1.34
Conceded goals: 1.33
Projected for this match: Chelsea 1.4 — 1.46 Bournemouth
Expected goals: Chelsea 1.4 — 1.46 Bournemouth

Likely scores

1-112%
1-28.5%
2-18.2%

Goals markets

Over 1.578.4%
Over 2.554.7%
Over 3.532.3%
BTTS58.3%

Corners (90 min)

Chelsea5.9
Bournemouth4.8

Yellow cards (90 min)

Chelsea2.1
Bournemouth2.1
1H total1.3
2H total2.9
Barrott averages 3.9 yellows a match, around the usual full-time card pace.

Second half

Chelsea
26%
Level
36%
Bournemouth
38%
Expected 2H goals Chelsea 0.68 — 0.89 Bournemouth

2H corners

Expected total6.5
Chelsea3.4
Bournemouth3.1

2H yellow cards

Expected total2.9
Chelsea1.6
Bournemouth1.4
2H reds (exp.)0.1

First half

No bet no-bet confidence
1H · Chelsea
22%
1H · Draw
42%
1H · Bournemouth
36%
Expected 1H goals Chelsea 0.5 — 0.71 Bournemouth · Over 0.5: Over (70%) · Over 1.5: Under (34%)

1H corners

Expected total4.3
Chelsea2.5
Bournemouth1.8
O/U 4.5Under · 57%

1H yellow cards

Expected total1.3
Chelsea0.5
Bournemouth0.7
O/U 1.5Under · 63%
2H expected total2.9
Chelsea 2H1.6
Bournemouth 2H1.4
1H reds (exp.)0.1
Barrott averages 0.9 yellows before HT, which trims the 1H card line.
Barrott averages 2.5 yellows after HT, which trims the 2H card line.

Without Mamadou Sarr (0.57 xG), Chelsea's first-half goal line is trimmed.

Evanilson (0.27 xG) is Bournemouth's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Squad availability

Chelsea · 6 listed

Mamadou Sarrdoubt
1 · Calf
Emiliano Martinezinjury
1 · Head
Mykhaylo Mudrykinjury
1 · Ankle
Jorrel Hatodoubt
1 · Other
Jamie Gittensinjury
1 · Ankle
Maxence Lacroixinjury
1 · Thigh

Bournemouth · 3 listed

Veljko Milosavljevicdoubt
1 · Knee
Juanlu Sanchezdoubt
1 · Ankle
Julian Araujodoubt
1 · Thigh

Match analysis

Chelsea vs Bournemouth (Premier League). Model call: Chelsea to win match full time (41% / 29% / 30%).

Bournemouth holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Chelsea 1.4 — 1.46 Bournemouth. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Chelsea. Chelsea home form -0.26; Bournemouth away form +0.01.

First-half lean: No bet. Without Jamie Gittens, Chelsea's full-time chance creation is trimmed.