Milan
v
Atalanta

Serie A · Sun 18 Oct · 18:00 · Referee: Daniele Chiffi

Head-to-head — last 5 at Milan (home)

W 2026-10-18 Milan 3–2 Atalanta
L 2026-05-10 Milan 2–3 Atalanta
L 2025-04-20 Milan 0–1 Atalanta
D 2024-02-25 Milan 1–1 Atalanta
W 2023-02-26 Milan 2–0 Atalanta
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): -0.21 → Atalanta (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
AGenoa
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
HInter
W
3–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-28
HBologna
L
2–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-25
AUdinese
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
HAtalanta
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-11
ASassuolo
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-20
HLecce
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
ALazio
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
ALazio
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-06
AJuventus
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-28
HVenezia
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-28
HVenezia
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
ATorino
W
2–1
4–2
1–0
0–0
2026-08-23
ATorino
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
HCagliari
L
1–2
5–5
2–2
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
AMonza
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-11-02
HParma
L
0–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-29
AFiorentina
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-25
HFrosinone
D
4–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
AMilan
L
2–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-12
HVenezia
W
3–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-20
AJuventus
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HCagliari
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HCagliari
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
ARoma
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-31
HBologna
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
HSassuolo
W
2–1
4–4
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
HSassuolo
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-22
AFiorentina
D
1–1
3–3
2–0
0–0
2026-05-17
HBologna
L
0–1
2–5
1–1
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-10-18
HAtalanta
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-10
HAtalanta
L
2–3
2–2
3–3
0–0
2025-10-28
AAtalanta
D
1–1
4–9
3–1
0–0
2025-04-20
HAtalanta
L
0–1
7–5
0–1
0–0
2024-12-06
AAtalanta
L
1–2
0–7
0–2
0–0
2024-02-25
HAtalanta
D
1–1
5–3
1–4
0–0
2023-12-09
AAtalanta
L
2–3
4–6
5–1
1–0
2023-02-26
HAtalanta
W
2–0
4–3
3–2
0–0
2022-08-21
AAtalanta
D
1–1
6–4
3–4
0–0
2022-05-15
HAtalanta
W
2–0
4–6
3–2
0–0
2021-10-03
AAtalanta
W
3–2
5–9
4–1
0–0
2021-05-23
AAtalanta
W
2–0
0–3
3–3
0–1
2021-01-23
HAtalanta
L
0–3
5–7
2–1
0–0
2020-07-24
HAtalanta
D
1–1
3–7
1–1
0–0
2019-12-22
AAtalanta
L
0–5
2–5
4–2
0–0

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

Too close to call
Milan
Atalanta
Possession %
—
—
xG
—
—
Shots
—
—
On target
—
—
Off target
—
—
Corners (est.)
1.7
2.1
Yellow cards (est.)
0.5
0.6
Red cards (est.)
0.0
0.0
Too close to call
Milan
Atalanta
Possession %
—
—
xG
—
—
Shots
—
—
On target
—
—
Off target
—
—
Corners (est.)
1.9
2.2
Yellow cards (est.)
1.0
1.2
Red cards (est.)
0.0
0.0

Full-time call

NO BET
1 · Milan
32%
X · Draw
32%
2 · Atalanta
36%
Milan at home
Expected goals: 1.21
Conceded goals: 1.32
Atalanta away
Expected goals: 1.55
Conceded goals: 1.22
Projected for this match: Milan 1.25 — 1.37 Atalanta
Expected goals: Milan 1.25 — 1.37 Atalanta

Likely scores

1-112.8%
0-19.6%
1-08.7%

Goals markets

Over 1.574.1%
Over 2.548.8%
Over 3.526.9%
BTTS53.7%

Corners (90 min)

Milan3.6
Atalanta4.3

Yellow cards (90 min)

Milan1.5
Atalanta1.7
1H total1
2H total2.2

Second half

Milan
32%
Level
39%
Atalanta
29%
Expected 2H goals Milan 0.74 — 0.69 Atalanta

2H corners split

Expected total4.1
Milan1.9
Atalanta2.2

2H yellow cards split

Expected total2.2
Milan1
Atalanta1.2
2H reds (exp.)0.1

First half

No bet no-bet confidence
1H · Milan
18%
1H · Draw
46%
1H · Atalanta
36%
Expected 1H goals Milan 0.38 — 0.64 Atalanta · Over 0.5: Over (64%) · Over 1.5: Under (27%)

1H corners split

Expected total3.8
Milan1.7
Atalanta2.1
O/U 3.5Over · 53%

1H yellow cards split

Expected total1
Milan0.5
Atalanta0.6
O/U 1.5Under · 74%
2H expected total2.2
Milan 2H1
Atalanta 2H1.2

Without Santiago Giménez (0.17 xG), Milan's first-half goal line is trimmed.

Berat Djimsiti (0.17 xG) is Atalanta's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Squad availability

Milan · 7 listed

Santiago Gimenezsuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Strahinja Pavlovicdoubt
1 · Physical discom
Samuel Chukwuezeinjury
1 · Hip
Fikayo Tomoriinjury
1 · Hamstring
Ruben Loftus-Cheekdoubt
1 · Thigh
Matteo Gabbiainjury
1 · Other
Pietro Terraccianodoubt
1 · Shoulder

Atalanta · 5 listed

Gianluca Gaetanodoubt
1 · Groin
Raoul Bellanovadoubt
1 · Thigh
Giacomo Raspadoridoubt
1 · Thigh
Odilon Kossounoudoubt
1 · Thigh
Isak Hieninjury
1 · Thigh

Match analysis

Milan vs Atalanta (Serie A). Model call: Atalanta to win match full time (32% / 32% / 36%).

Projected xG Milan 1.25 — 1.37 Atalanta. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Atalanta. Milan home form -0.11; Atalanta away form +0.32.

First-half lean: No bet. Without Santiago Gimenez, Milan's full-time attack is trimmed as well.