Newcastle
v
Aston Villa

Premier League · Sat 17 Oct · 18:30 · Referee: Jarred Gillett

Head-to-head — last 5 at Newcastle (home)

L 2026-10-17 Newcastle 0–1 Aston Villa
L 2026-01-25 Newcastle 0–2 Aston Villa
W 2024-12-26 Newcastle 3–0 Aston Villa
W 2023-08-12 Newcastle 5–1 Aston Villa
W 2022-10-29 Newcastle 4–0 Aston Villa
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): 0 → Newcastle (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-07
AFulham
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-11-02
HEverton
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-25
ACrystal Palace
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-17
HAston Villa
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-12
ACoventry
L
1–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-19
HHull
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-14
ALeeds
L
1–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-14
ALeeds
L
1–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
HBournemouth
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-29
ATottenham
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-29
ATottenham
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
HLiverpool
D
2–2
2–6
5–3
0–0
2026-08-23
HLiverpool
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
AFulham
L
0–2
6–6
2–2
0–0
2026-05-17
HWest Ham
W
3–1
9–1
1–3
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
AMan United
D
4–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
HFulham
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-24
HMan City
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-17
ANewcastle
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
HBrentford
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-19
ATottenham
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HNott'm Forest
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HNott'm Forest
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
AHull
D
0–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-31
HArsenal
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
ABrighton
L
0–4
2–5
3–2
1–0
2026-08-23
ABrighton
L
0–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
AMan City
W
2–1
4–9
0–1
0–0
2026-05-15
HLiverpool
W
4–2
4–9
3–1
0–0
2026-05-10
ABurnley
D
2–2
8–2
1–1
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-10-17
HAston Villa
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-01-25
HAston Villa
L
0–2
6–5
1–2
0–0
2025-08-16
AAston Villa
D
0–0
6–3
1–1
0–1
2025-04-19
AAston Villa
L
1–4
7–7
3–1
0–0
2024-12-26
HAston Villa
W
3–0
9–6
2–1
0–1
2024-01-30
AAston Villa
W
3–1
7–8
1–4
0–0
2023-08-12
HAston Villa
W
5–1
6–5
4–4
0–0
2023-04-15
AAston Villa
L
0–3
2–7
1–1
0–0
2022-10-29
HAston Villa
W
4–0
3–0
1–1
0–0
2022-02-13
HAston Villa
W
1–0
3–6
3–4
0–0
2021-08-21
AAston Villa
L
0–2
4–3
4–3
0–0
2021-03-12
HAston Villa
D
1–1
2–2
2–3
0–0
2021-01-23
AAston Villa
L
0–2
4–5
3–0
0–0
2020-06-24
HAston Villa
D
1–1
6–9
2–2
0–0
2019-11-25
AAston Villa
L
0–2
6–11
1–1
0–0

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

First half lean: Newcastle — higher 1H xG, SOT and shots
Newcastle
Aston Villa
Possession %
51
52
xG
0.98
0.37
Shots
6.2
4.2
On target
2.6
1.2
Off target
1.9
1.9
Corners
3.4
2.4
Yellow cards
0.3
0.3
Red cards
0.1
0.0
Second half lean: Aston Villa — higher 2H SOT, possession and corners
Newcastle
Aston Villa
Possession %
51
60
xG
1.23
1.19
Shots
7.9
8.1
On target
2.9
3.4
Off target
2.6
2.8
Corners
2.2
2.8
Yellow cards
1.5
1.0
Red cards
0.0
0.0

Full-time call

NO BET
1 · Newcastle
58%
X · Draw
23%
2 · Aston Villa
19%
Newcastle at home
Expected goals: 2
Conceded goals: 1.68
Aston Villa away
Expected goals: 1.11
Conceded goals: 1.77
Projected for this match: Newcastle 1.79 — 1.4 Aston Villa
Expected goals: Newcastle 1.79 — 1.4 Aston Villa

Likely scores

1-110.6%
2-19.2%
1-27.2%

Goals markets

Over 1.583%
Over 2.561.7%
Over 3.539.4%
BTTS63%

Corners (90 min)

Newcastle5
Aston Villa4.7

Yellow cards (90 min)

Newcastle2.2
Aston Villa2.1
1H total1
2H total3.3
Gillett averages 3.7 yellows a match, which trims the full-time card line.

Second half

Newcastle
24%
Level
34%
Aston Villa
42%
Expected 2H goals Newcastle 0.68 — 1.01 Aston Villa

2H corners

Expected total5.1
Newcastle2.4
Aston Villa2.7

2H yellow cards

Expected total3.3
Newcastle1.7
Aston Villa1.5
2H reds (exp.)0.1

First half

No bet no-bet confidence
1H · Newcastle
45%
1H · Draw
36%
1H · Aston Villa
19%
Expected 1H goals Newcastle 0.97 — 0.52 Aston Villa · Over 0.5: Over (78%) · Over 1.5: Under (44%)

1H corners

Expected total4.7
Newcastle2.7
Aston Villa2
O/U 4.5Even · 51%

1H yellow cards

Expected total1
Newcastle0.5
Aston Villa0.6
O/U 1.5Under · 74%
2H expected total3.3
Newcastle 2H1.7
Aston Villa 2H1.5
Gillett averages 1.5 yellows before HT, which lifts the 1H card line.
Gillett averages 2.4 yellows after HT, which trims the 2H card line.

Nick Woltemade (0.31 xG) is Newcastle's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Ollie Watkins (0.28 xG) is Aston Villa's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Squad availability

Newcastle · 3 listed

Jacob Ramseysuspension
1 · 2nd yellow (Red)
Joelintoninjury
1 · Other
Ewen Jaoueninjury
1 · Thigh

Aston Villa · 4 listed

Matty Cashsuspension
1 · Yellow cards
Johan Manzambidoubt
1 · Calf
Matteo Ruggeriinjury
1 · Thigh
Amadou Onanainjury
1 · Knee

Match analysis

Newcastle vs Aston Villa (Premier League). Model call: Newcastle to win match full time (58% / 23% / 19%).

Aston Villa holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Newcastle 1.79 — 1.4 Aston Villa. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Newcastle. Newcastle home form +0.32; Aston Villa away form -0.66.

First-half lean: No bet. Without Jacob Ramsey, Newcastle's full-time chance creation is trimmed. Without Matteo Ruggeri, Aston Villa's full-time chance creation is trimmed.