Brighton
v
Aston Villa

Premier League · Sun 23 Aug · 15:00 · Referee: Peter Bankes

Head-to-head — last 5 at Brighton (home)

W 2026-08-23 Brighton 4–0 Aston Villa
L 2025-12-03 Brighton 3–4 Aston Villa
L 2025-04-02 Brighton 0–3 Aston Villa
W 2024-05-05 Brighton 1–0 Aston Villa
L 2022-11-13 Brighton 1–2 Aston Villa
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): -0.14 → Aston Villa (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-09-13
ACoventry
W
5–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-13
ACoventry
W
5–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
HLeeds
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
AChelsea
L
3–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
AChelsea
L
3–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
HAston Villa
W
4–0
5–2
2–3
0–1
2026-08-23
HAston Villa
W
4–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
HMan United
L
0–3
0–3
0–1
0–0
2026-05-17
ALeeds
L
0–1
8–7
0–1
0–0
2026-05-09
HWolves
W
3–0
7–1
1–2
0–0
2026-05-02
ANewcastle
L
1–3
10–2
3–3
0–0
2026-04-21
HChelsea
W
3–0
6–5
1–1
0–0
2026-04-18
ATottenham
D
2–2
5–7
1–3
0–0
2026-04-11
ABurnley
W
2–0
2–8
1–2
0–0
2026-03-21
HLiverpool
W
2–1
4–8
5–5
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-09-12
HNott'm Forest
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HNott'm Forest
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
AHull
D
0–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-31
HArsenal
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
ABrighton
L
0–4
2–5
3–2
1–0
2026-08-23
ABrighton
L
0–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
AMan City
W
2–1
4–9
0–1
0–0
2026-05-15
HLiverpool
W
4–2
4–9
3–1
0–0
2026-05-10
ABurnley
D
2–2
8–2
1–1
0–0
2026-05-03
HTottenham
L
1–2
5–5
2–5
0–0
2026-04-25
AFulham
L
0–1
5–2
2–2
0–0
2026-04-19
HSunderland
W
4–3
4–5
1–3
0–0
2026-04-12
ANott'm Forest
D
1–1
3–7
2–2
0–0
2026-03-22
HWest Ham
W
2–0
6–6
0–1
0–0
2026-03-15
AMan United
L
1–3
6–6
2–3
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-08-23
HAston Villa
W
4–0
5–2
2–3
0–1
2026-02-11
AAston Villa
L
0–1
5–7
3–2
0–0
2025-12-03
HAston Villa
L
3–4
5–6
2–2
0–0
2025-04-02
HAston Villa
L
0–3
4–0
1–3
0–0
2024-12-30
AAston Villa
D
2–2
3–12
3–2
0–0
2024-05-05
HAston Villa
W
1–0
7–3
2–1
0–0
2023-09-30
AAston Villa
L
1–6
3–1
4–4
0–0
2023-05-28
AAston Villa
L
1–2
3–4
4–4
0–0
2022-11-13
HAston Villa
L
1–2
11–4
2–7
0–0
2022-02-26
HAston Villa
L
0–2
7–2
4–5
0–0
2021-11-20
AAston Villa
L
0–2
7–5
3–3
0–0
2021-02-13
HAston Villa
D
0–0
9–2
2–3
0–0
2020-11-21
AAston Villa
W
2–1
3–12
1–2
1–0
2020-01-18
HAston Villa
D
1–1
3–4
3–3
0–0
2019-10-19
AAston Villa
L
1–2
5–7
2–1
1–0

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

First half lean: Brighton — higher 1H xG, SOT and possession
Brighton
Aston Villa
Possession %
59
52
xG
0.77
0.37
Shots
5.6
4.2
On target
1.7
1.2
Off target
2.5
1.9
Corners
2.0
2.4
Yellow cards
0.5
0.3
Red cards
0.0
0.0
Second half lean: Aston Villa — higher 2H xG, SOT and possession
Brighton
Aston Villa
Possession %
56
60
xG
0.93
1.19
Shots
8.1
8.1
On target
2.9
3.4
Off target
2.6
2.8
Corners
2.3
2.8
Yellow cards
1.2
1.0
Red cards
0.0
0.0

Full-time call

BET · HOME (73.6%)
1 · Brighton
74%
X · Draw
16%
2 · Aston Villa
10%
Brighton at home
Expected goals: 1.81
Conceded goals: 0.92
Aston Villa away
Expected goals: 1.11
Conceded goals: 1.77
Projected for this match: Brighton 1.98 — 1.08 Aston Villa
Expected goals: Brighton 1.98 — 1.08 Aston Villa

Likely scores

1-110.3%
2-19.9%
2-09.2%

Goals markets

Over 1.581.4%
Over 2.559.2%
Over 3.536.8%
BTTS57.4%

Corners (90 min)

Brighton5.2
Aston Villa4.6

Yellow cards (90 min)

Brighton1.9
Aston Villa1.8
1H total1
2H total2.7
Bankes averages 4.0 yellows a match, around the usual full-time card pace.

Second half

Brighton
28%
Level
40%
Aston Villa
32%
Expected 2H goals Brighton 0.65 — 0.72 Aston Villa

2H corners

Expected total5.6
Brighton2.9
Aston Villa2.7

2H yellow cards

Expected total2.7
Brighton1.4
Aston Villa1.3
2H reds (exp.)0.1

First half

Brighton lead medium confidence
1H · Brighton
49%
1H · Draw
33%
1H · Aston Villa
18%
Expected 1H goals Brighton 1.09 — 0.54 Aston Villa · Over 0.5: Over (80%) · Over 1.5: Under (49%)

1H corners

Expected total4.3
Brighton2.3
Aston Villa1.9
O/U 4.5Under · 57%

1H yellow cards

Expected total1
Brighton0.5
Aston Villa0.5
O/U 1.5Under · 74%
2H expected total2.7
Brighton 2H1.4
Aston Villa 2H1.3
Bankes averages 1.6 yellows and 0.3 reds before HT, which lifts the 1H card line.
Bankes averages 1.6 yellows after HT, which trims the 2H card line.

Danny Welbeck (0.25 xG) is Brighton's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Ollie Watkins (0.28 xG) is Aston Villa's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Squad availability

Brighton · 10 listed

Georginio Rutterdoubt
1 · Ankle
Stefanos Tzimasinjury
1 · Cruciate ligame
Michael Svobodadoubt
1 · Knee
Femi Azeezinjury
1 · Thigh
Zadok Yohannainjury
1 · Other
Mats Wiefferinjury
1 · Knee
Kaoru Mitomainjury
1 · Hamstring
Yankuba Mintehinjury
1 · Calf
Evan Fergusoninjury
1 · Ankle
Carlos Balebainjury
1 · Ankle

Aston Villa · 7 listed

Joao Gomessuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Pau Torresdoubt
1 · Hamstring
Ian Maatsendoubt
1 · Ankle
Matty Cashdoubt
1 · Muscle
Brian Madjodoubt
1 · Ankle
Leon Goretzkainjury
1 · Knee
Amadou Onanainjury
1 · Knee

Match analysis

Brighton vs Aston Villa (Premier League). Model call: Brighton to win match full time (74% / 16% / 10%).

Brighton holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Brighton 1.98 — 1.08 Aston Villa. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Aston Villa. Brighton home form +0.89; Aston Villa away form -0.66.

First-half lean: Brighton lead. Without Zadok Yohanna, Brighton's full-time chance creation is trimmed. Without Joao Gomes, Aston Villa's full-time chance creation is trimmed.